Sunday, March 17, 2019

A Plan to Reverse Global Warming

A Path Through the Forest

What Can I Do?

In a recent blog post, I wrote about my sense of helplessness and personal paralysis as I considered what I can do to help address global warming and climate change. The problem is huge and multi-faceted, and change on a global scale is urgently needed for humanity's survival (or, perhaps more accurately, the survival of human civilizations).

As a single individual, I cannot solve climate change. But I can do my small part to make a difference, to the best of my ability.

So where should I put my efforts? What actions would have the biggest impact, match my particular knowledge and skill set, and be within the scope of what I can actually accomplish?

Although I have been slowly educating myself about the challenge of global warming facing us as a species, I decided that I needed to do some reading about not just the challenge facing us, but about possible solutions.

Drawdown

So I ordered the following book from the library: Drawdown: The Most Comprehensive Plan Ever Proposed to Reverse Global Warming. It arrived a couple of days ago. This book, edited by Paul Hawken and published in 2017, was a New York Times best seller in 2018. There also is a website that is even more extensive and up-to-date than the book at www.drawdown.org.

So what is "drawdown?" The website defines it this way: "Drawdown is that point in time when the concentration of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere begins to decline on a year-to-year basis." Once greenhouse gases begin to decline, the warming of the planet will begin to reverse.

The book sets out 100 global strategies, which, if we implement them all by 2050, will enable us to reverse global warming. The strategies are in the following categories: Energy, Food, Women and Girls, Buildings and Cities, Land Use, Transport, Materials, and Coming Attractions (promising future technologies and solutions).

All of the approaches (except the last category which is more speculative) already exist and have been rigorously researched and modeled by a team of more than 200 scientists and other specialists from around the globe. Each one is ranked in terms of how many gigatons of carbon dioxide (and other greenhouse gases) will be reduced by 2050 using that solution, an estimate of how much it will cost to implement, and what the net savings will be. By reduced, I mean either CO2 that will be removed from the atmosphere, or CO2 that would be added if we continue on our current course but that we will avoid adding if we use this solution.

In the book, they have adopted a conservative bias -- that is, left room for error if the proposed solution is not quite as effective or adopted as readily as the scientific evidence suggests is plausible. 

Upon receiving the book, I looked at the Table of Contents and how the book was organized. I read the brief Forward that described the purpose of the book and the assumptions they worked within. Then I flipped straight to the back of the book and read the table of statistics (yes, I'm a nerd).

The numbers show that, by 2050, in the Plausible Scenario (the outcome that we should be able to achieve with good effort), we will be able to reduce 1,051 gigatons of carbon dioxide. That will not get us to drawdown or reversal of global warming. In order to reach drawdown, we will need to reduce carbon dioxide by 1442.3 gigatons. This is the Drawdown Scenario, and they describe how it can be achieved. They also show an Optimum Scenario -- one where we are able reduce carbon dioxide by 1612.9 gigatons.

I also skimmed through the brief bios of the 200 scientists and other experts from around the world who contributed to this research and plan.

My Initial Response

 My first thoughts on getting this far with the book were:
  • a huge sense of relief that so many really smart people with appropriate backgrounds are working on developing solutions and a plan
  • surprise at the wide range of human activities that are currently contributing to the problem, and the practical solutions in each area. 
  • a dawning realization that we have to work on the problem of global warming on many fronts simultaneously -- electric cars, solar power, and wind turbines are not by themselves a solution. They are only part of the solution. 
  • surprise to see that the data shows that the net savings of implementing "greener" solutions exceeds the costs. That is, green solutions are in most cases less expensive than what we are currently doing. 
 I also appreciated that the book is very engaging and interesting to read, not dry and technical as so many reports about climate change and policy frameworks tend to be. It is beautifully illustrated with photos of different landscapes and cultures around the world.

So I dived into the meat of the book.

Drawdown, Open to the Section on Food

Food

I decided to start with the section on food, because I am very interested in food.

I was surprised to learn that a broad-based switch to eating a plant-rich diet is one of the most effective ways of reducing greenhouse gases -- ranked 4th of the 100 solutions. They point out that our "Western diet comes with a steep climate price tag," noting that raising livestock accounts for 15 to 50 percent of current greenhouse gases emitted each year. A large proportion of this is because of the deforestation that takes place in order to create grazing areas for cattle, in particular.

They report that the average Canadian and American eats more than 90 grams of protein each day, much of it from meat and animal products. An adult's daily protein requirement is 50 grams and all or most of it can be obtained from plant-based foods.

They recommend reducing meat consumption and avoiding overeating by restricting calorie intake to 2500 calories per day, on average. Citing Thich Nhat Hanh, a Zen master, they say, "making the transition to a plant-based diet may well be the most effective way an individual can stop climate change."

As I have written here before, I eat a healthy well-rounded diet that includes meat. But this book convinces me that reducing my meat consumption is something immediate and positive with respect to climate change that I as an individual can do.

Another astonishing source of CO2 in the atmosphere is from food wastage. More than a third of the food we grow or raise every year in the world is thrown away, primarily in high-income economies. Yet around the world people are going hungry.

The wasted food contributes the equivalent of 4.4 gigatons of carbon dioxide every year. If we used the food instead of throwing it away, globally we could reduce the need to clear more land to grow food, which causes deforestation. Reversing food wastage is ranked third of the 100 solutions in terms of carbon dioxide reduction. If by 2050 we only threw away half as much food as we do presently, we could reduce CO2 by 70.5 gigatons, they say.

Some of the other topics I have read about include farmland restoration (#23), clean cookstoves (#21), multistrata agroforestry (which means planting crops under trees) (#28), improved rice cultivation (#24), growing rice using the system of rice intensification (#53), and silvoculture (grazing livestock in forests) (#9).

There are still several other strategies that involve food and agriculture that I have yet to read about. It is interesting to discover that so much of our greenhouse gases come from our systems for raising and handling food.

Michael Pollan's advice: Plant a food garden in your yard or community. Because of our industrialized approach to agriculture, every calorie of food produced requires 10 calories of fossil fuels to produce it. Therefore, he says, growing your own food is one of the most powerful things you can do. 
 
Why It Matters

To me, the reason that it is imperative to take action is that the well-being of future generations rests on the choices we make right now. Every month that we delay, we pump more greenhouse gases and particulate into the atmosphere. Some of them, like carbon dioxide, remain in the air for decades or even centuries. Others, like black carbon, only stay in the air for eight to ten days, but hugely accelerate the warming effect when they are present.

Taking action now means that our grandchildren and our loved ones' grandchildren will inherit a beautiful world in which they can thrive. The alternative, if we do not take action, is too horrible to contemplate.

I'll leave you with some photos of me on a recent hike with my son and daughter.

18 comments:

  1. After reading this post, my reaction was the same as yours - encouraged that so many very smart people are working on this issue that there is so much that each of us can do.
    The thoughts on how our food system contributes to the problem was an eye-opener, especially around food waste.

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    1. Joanne, I had previously read about the beef industry as being a big contributor to global warming, but I hadn’t realized how big. It is not just because of the methane the cows emit during digestion, but also because of deforestation to clear land for grazing, and the industrial, fossil fuel intensive production of hay and grain on millions of acres to feed to the cattle.

      And with respect to food wastage, some of it is from households, but much of it is earlier in the supply chain: sorting out all the imperfectly shaped fruits and vegetables that come from farms and leaving them to rot, wastage during transportation, wastage of produce not sold in a timely way in grocery stores (veggies that go soft, or milk that reaches its “best before” date), and throwing out food at restaurants.

      And while our society throws away this abundance, so many in the world go hungry, rotting food creates greenhouse gases, and more forests are cleared to grow more food.

      It is shocking.

      Jude

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  2. Hi Jude! I haven't read this book but I am familiar with the work of Paul Hawkins. An amazing man for sure. And I applaud your desire to be more proactive about climate change. It's so important that all of us keep it firmly in mind and do what we can. My husband and I got very serious about it about 10 years ago and also do what we can. We still eat meat but have cut way back. We also made our home about as energy efficient as possible. Solar, use an evaporative cooler when possible instead of A/C, extra insulation, etc. We do have a a garden although our growing season is rather short. But I have to believe that the biggest thing we have done is to no have children. I realize that doesn't work when you already have them, but our world population is a big part of the problem. Does Hawkins have anything to say about that? I'm not saying people shouldn't have children, but to pressure anyone who is not firmly committed to them in every way is something I think needs to change. Anyway, that's just my two cents. And thank you for writing this post and reminding us all how important. ~Kathy

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    1. Hi Kathy. Like you, we have strived to make our home(s) energy efficient (since 2007, we have owned four different houses). We have had an energy assessment done, added insulation, replaced roofs, and installed a hot water on demand system. The current house we own was throughly updated before we bought it, including having a heat pump, and a high efficiency wood stove.

      Your point about changing the mindset toward having smaller families (or in some cases no children) is a good one. Hawken has a section on empowering and educating women and girls, which I haven’t read yet, but I think he addresses family planning in it. The argument is that when girls are educated and women have a more equal say in society, they choose to have fewer children. Of course, in developed countries like Canada and the USA, where the birth rate is now below replacement, fewer children is a big win because each North American has a big carbon footprint.

      In fact, from my other reading, I have learned that slowing population growth worldwide is one of the big “wins” for humanity over the last few decades. We have shifted the curve from steep population growth in the 1980’s to low-moderate growth in the 2010’s. However, because of global warming, we have to get to the point of no growth or negative growth, so we have to keep working on this.

      Jude

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  3. I agree with you and Joanne that it’s reassuring, a bit at least, that clever people are working on this and can suggest solutions. It’s heartening as well how seriously young people are taking the issue with the current round of school strikes. Kathy’s comment about population growth struck a chord too - I’m a child-free veggie and although neither decision was specifically made on environmental grounds, I think it’s true that the world has enough western over-consumers without me having contributed!

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    1. Hi Anabel. Yes, by making those two choices, you and John have contributed less to global warming than most of us in the “developed” world. Thank goodness for the children speaking up via the rotating strikes. I feel ashamed that our generation and the preceding ones have dumped an overheated, threatened Earth on today’s children, along with the responsibility for cleaning it up.

      Jude

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  4. Hi, Jude - Thank you for this very thought-provoking post. I look forward to checking out the website that you have listed. In the beginning of February, I began to cook only vegetarian meals at home. I had planned to do this only for a month and to see what happened. At the end of the month, Richard and I both felt better, Richard lost weight that he had been hoping to lose and our grocery bill was less expensive than it had been previously. It was such an easy and positive change for us, that I have continued to cook this way at home. Richard and I sometimes eat meat when we are out, which provides a healthy balance for us.

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    1. Donna, 10 or 15 years ago, I regularly cooked using a low-meat approach. And then, imperceptibly over time, I slipped back into cooking lots of meat. I am going to begin reducing meat (especially beef) in the meals I cook, but I will do it gradually. We’ll see how that goes. I am glad to hear that the shift to vegetarian cooking worked so well for you and Richard.

      Jude

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  5. Hi Jude - Thank you for sharing the link and what you've noted so far from your reading. I'll check out the 'draw down' web site. In my family, we've been eating more vegetables and fruits than meat, mostly lean chicken. I'd love to grow my own food garden, except the nice weather is short, so I have to research more how to make it work year-round.

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    1. Hi Natalie. All my adult life, until we moved here 1 1/2 years ago, I grew an organic vegetable garden. As I moved a lot, it was challenging to build a garden from scratch at every new home, and then leave it behind when Imade my next move. But, I have now had the experience of growing a garden in many different climates and soil conditions, from northern BC to the Prairies to the coast.

      My problem with our new place is that the previous owners developed a very beautiful decorative garden that takes up the whole backyard. I would have to rip out some of the shrubs and flowers to put in a vegetable garden, and it might ruin the aesthetics of the garden. So last year, I put a few veggies and strawberry plants in among the shrubs, and had some containers of herbs and tomatoes on the deck.

      I’m still trying to decide what to do this year.

      Jude

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  6. Great post, Jude! We think about our impact more now than ever. We've moved to a plant-based diet (mostly - I have some serious fruit/vegetable intolerances unfortunately...). We waste almost nothing that we buy! We've done away with plastic bags and we walk most places or ride bikes. Very little need for a car here. The more moves we all make in this direction, the better!

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    1. Vicki, those are all really great steps to take. As more and more of us become conscious of our impact, we can begin to make a difference through our daily actions, I believe.

      Jude

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  7. Hi Jude! What an interesting read. Thank you for doing the research and updating us about your progress with this book and with “fighting” global warming. Mark and I started eating a plant-based diet for health reasons but have since learned about its environmental impact. It’s a win-win-win situation.

    We also try to create as little garbage as possible and NEVER waste food (or anything else, like water or electricity).

    When living on our sailboat we were 100% self-sufficient with solar and wind power and collected water from the sky. We sailed everywhere, rarely using fossil fuels. We don’t have children, don’t have a house, and don’t use utilities. If anyone would just do a little more efforts towards a cleaner and environmentally friendlier world, it would make a gigantic impact.

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    1. Hi Liesbet. Your lifestyle choices certainly are gentle on the environment. By turning away from consumerism and only using what you need to survive, you have reduced your carbon footprint to become much smaller than the average North American. Another factor that reduces your environmental impact is house sharing. By house sitting for people who are away from home, you are able to live in an existing house and use all of its existing infrastructure, rather than adding one more house and all of its contents to the planet. The more sharing we do, e.g., carpooling, sharing yard equipment like lawnmowers and snowblowers, having suites in our existing houses, and sharing fruit from our fruit trees, and so on, the less consumer pressure we exert, and thus the less transportation, construction, and fossil fueled manufacturing we demand.

      Jude

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  8. Thank you for writing this post on global warming. It is THE most important topic out there and the more we draw attention to it and ALL do as much as possible as we can, the better. We really have no option but to educate ourselves and to be prepared for whats coming. More floods, fires, droughts, heat waves , water shortages, food shortages....

    We have tried for the last ten years or so, since seeing Al Gore's movie about climate change, to do everything in our power to live a sustainable life style, gentle on the environment so that we can reduce our personal impact. We have not owned a car for ten years, easier to do in Nicaragua and Sri Lanka than in America or Europe of course. We eat mostly plant based , in fact we never ever buy meat, but will eat it at restaurants very occasionally. We do not waste food and we compost all fruit and veg scraps.

    One of the other largest contributors to climate change is overall consumption. The more we buy the more is produced the more energy is used, the more chemicals, the more pollution... etc etc. This is really a HUGE topic and one we can all work towards by not buying into the 'Big is better" and endless thoughtless ocnsumption of goods.

    Thank you for highlighting the most important topic on the table, all over the globe.

    Peta

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    1. Peta, thanks so much for your comment. Having read your blog, I am aware of how much you are doing personally to make a difference with respect to climate change, from your earlier work in developing a sustainable bamboo industry, to your current approach of living gently on the land. You provide a good example for the rest of us. Although not all of us can live a nomadic life style like you or Liesbet, we can all do things to make a difference. Reducing our material consumption of manufactured things and eating less meat are two relatively easy steps that are within the grasp of those of us living within industrialized countries, but that will make a big difference.

      Beyond that, we can join political or environmental groups to advocate for important local changes (e.g., regulation of fish farms, preventing oil pipeline development, advocating for incentives for green alternatives such as solar panels on roofs that are connected to the grid or electric cars, or suppressing the spread of invasive species). We can direct our donations to the international education of girls, to micro loans for small businesses in developing companies, and to regenerative agriculture initiatives. We can boycott products from corporations that have a terrible humanitarian or environmental record (like Nestle). We can divest our portfolios of investments in oil companies. And these are just some examples.

      This is so important to the future of humanity, and we still have time to avert calamity if we all start taking action.

      Jude

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  9. Hi Jude, A very interesting, informative and important post. I also found it interesting to read through the above comments. Awareness, education and action is key. My husband is getting a huge thank you today, after reading this, for all the effort he puts into our garden. Thank you for a thought-provoking post. I also love the photos of you, your son and your daughter:)

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    1. Hi Erica: Cheers to your husband! I used to raise a lot of our summer vegetables in a backyard garden. However, since moving here, my gardening has been foiled by lack of a proper place to grow vegetables, as well as the deer and the rabbits. I look forward to meeting you soon.

      Jude

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